Some time back, I made a prediction, posting this prediction on a few different social media platforms. My prediction was that
Trump would win. There’s a little bit more to my prediction, as I had added a few additional predictions along with it. But that’s what I had predicted in a nutshell, Trump would win. Though if I were to give a percentage, It would be that trump has a 85% chance at Winning his second term.
So, what I would like to do in this post is talk about why I made this prediction. Keep in mind, I am no Trump fan who thinks he will win simply because I am a Trump fan boy who views him only in a good light. Which I don’t, I personaly don’t like him and I hate how he helped the encrocment on our gun rights. So I am no fan.
So why do I think Trump will win.
Enthusasum:
Poll numbers may say one thing, but if People are not as enthusiastic about it, they are less likely to vote. Don’t get me wrong, I expect more people to vote this year than ever before, on both sides. It’s just ultimately not as many that can vote will vote.
Anyway, what this means, is if you have 100 people and 40 say they will vote Biden and 35 Trump, but the people for Biden are less enthusastic, only 30 may come out. However, if Trump supporters having near 100%, enthusiastic level, they will have a higher voter turnout, and 32 may come out to vote, out numbering Biden voters.
Think of it this way, if a person is really not enthusiastic about their candidate and they have other things you like to do, they may choose not to vote, so instead, they will end up doing other things.
Of course, this is a lot more complicated than I made it here, but I’m just giving one of the reasons as to why.
Mail in voting:
One huge issue with mail in voting is how they can be rejected. The New York Times reported it can me as high as 2 to 1. Even if it’s a fraction of that, it means a lot of votes will not be counted.
Keep in mind, data show’s that it’s mostly first time voters who are affected, and most new voters are Democrats. As well, reports show that Democrats are less like to vote in person out of fear of COVID, meaning more votes will be sent through the mail. Translation, more rejections.
At the same time, Trump supporters are not that fearful of COVID-19 and more likely to show up in person and have their vote counted. While more likely to wait in line for many hours to vote. Again, if a person is less enthusiastic seeing a long line they probably gonna be less likely to bother with it and just go home.
In the end, what this could mean, is that possibly millions of peoples votes will not be counted, most of those will be democrats. Giving Trump the advantage as most of the votes for him will be counted.
This means, that Biden may have more people who vote for him, but because the votes are not counted, Trump Ultimately gets more votes as a result of the rejections.
Inflated pull numbers:
One thing that helped with Trumps victory back in 2016 was the poll numbers being in favor of Hillary. Democrats beloved Hillary was going to win, so they thought, why bother voting? Allowing republicans, a smaller group, to win electoral votes.
Again, this election, we are seeing poll number in favor of the Trumps counter candidate, Biden. With some polls showing a 10 even 12 digit lead. So, this could have the same effect, where people who could vote will chose not to because they will think Biden will win anyway. Again, they may see that long line and think, “Well, Biden is going to win, so I’ll skip it.”
So we can see how this self can affect this election.
Register voters in battleground states:
In most battleground states, people registering to vote are registered as a Republican, in Florida its record braking and there are now more Latinos registering Republican then democrats. Not to mention they’re now Latino parade’s for trump.
If In the key states we seeing such a huge amount of people registering republican vs democrat, this is a good sign that Trump will take a good portion of the battleground states.
Campaigning popular vote versus electoral voter:
The thing Hillary filled at, was that she was not campaigning for the electoral college vote, she was going for the popular vote and seemed to be assuming that the popular vote will translate into the electoral vote. After all, she had the lead in the polls, Which made her look like she was getting the popular vote, so why would they no translate over?
With Biden, we are seeing history repeat its self. He seems to be Companion for this popular vote versus the electoral college.
Trump Russian collusion:
the very thing that was meant to hurt Trump, which has been part of a soft coup, is something that actually has helped Trump. Because what it has done is twofold, it is cost people not to trust the media, who can say something true that’s horrible about Trump but now less people will believe it. The other is that it makes Trump looks like the underdog, who is punching up at the establishment cronies.
Americans really like the underdog, especially when that dog looks like they’re the one being bullied and they’re fighting back. So we root for them to win. Most don’t even really care about the details, we just want to see a bully to Underdog come out Victorious.
Look at the movie The Karate Kid Daniel actually threw the first punch Daniel with a loud mouth, kid who used it against the bigger boy. Arguably Daniel can be seen as the bully. However, because people see Daniel as the Underdog punching up, they end up rooting for him to win.
The same goes for Trump no matter how much of a loudmouth, arrogant ass he is, this made him look like he’s being bullied, thus he is the underdog who is punching up.
The economy:
Prior to COVID, the economy was getting stronger, many labor jobs for returning like in the oil Industries, manufacturing specifically cars. Trump’s tax cuts put more money into people’s pockets. For me personally, it was just over $10,000 a year. Biden threatens that not just because he what the ad new taxes, but because he will not extend the Trump taxes.
There’s a saying, “it’s the money, stupid.” And this is very true in regards to which way people vote. When people look at their paycheck when they look at their tax return making more money and make the other person as the one who threatened to take away thousands, there’s no doubt this will affect the way people vote.
Sure, COVID hit, and the economy took a nosedive, with tens of thousands losing their jobs. However, those who didn’t lose their jobs still we’re looking at Paychecks, and the right has done a great job in educating people to understand the job losses are not a Trump’s fault, but individual states shut down policy, and how Trump has nothing to do with that.
At the same time, people see Trump’s telling the states to end their shutdown and bring back the jobs, letting people get back to work. So the people who have lost their jobs are looking at this, yeah I need my job back, I don’t care about this pandemic, the risks are worth it.
This is dangerous to open back up but not everybody feels the same way and people who are trying to figure out where their next meal is coming from or feed the family identify this a very important issue that’s going to help Drive their vote. As an empty stomach, is a powerful motivator.
Violence in Democratic cities:
When people see violence erupting in cities across the United States, where writers take over entire sections and match through the suburbs, while democrat Governors and mayors tell theirs police to stand down and do nothing, this sends shock waves through voting population.
At the same time, when they see Trump practically begging the democrat-run states to do something or to accept his help and they refuse, wlall while the Biden camp and other Democrats criticize Trump over it trying to put a end to it, and also blaming Trump for what they created, people see this and think about how their safety can be nagitivly effected by a Democrat as their president. Especially when that president wants to limit their ability to defend themselves with the use of firearms.
As well, on top of that, because Democrats (which Biden is part of), could actually do something about this and choose not to, it makes it look like the Democrats are intentionally doing it to try and make Trump look bad. Again, this makes Trump look like the underdog, and the Democrats look like bullies who are willing to allow people’s businesses, livelihoods to be burnt down and people to be killed just to win an election against Trump.
This does not look good in, people die so they will naturally lean to the right.
Choice for VP:
One of the worst choices Biden could have made was him picking Kamala Harris as his vice president. Prior to this person did not like her at all, especially those in the black community as she put so many of them behind bars. She represented everything wrong with the legal system and he chose her.
This was a huge mistake, and many Democrats or even telling Biden, he should not pick her, as many people will not vote for Biden because of her, especially people in the black. He chose to and oh my gosh Twitter, Facebook lit up with people angry over this decision or the Republicans were celebrating at their stupidity, as they felt like they just one four more years of Trump over this bad pick. And bad it was.
This in itself is probably partially why Trump’s that’s such a high approval rating among the black community.
In the end, it’s almost like the Democrats we’re intentionally attempting to lose everything they did and have been doing has effectively helped Trump to the point one may think it was intentional. Of course that unlikely, but tgey have managed to botch this so badly all to get Trump out of office, to the point that either they are incredibly incompetent or it’s done intentionally.
There are other, smaller reasons, but as you can see, I have reasons for my prediction is something, not just some tribalism.